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In the past three months, economists have changed their outlook for the U.S. to slower growth, higher inflation and greater risk of recession. The changed consensus in The Wall Street Journal's quarterly survey reflects President Trump's trade war. Several economists noted frequent shifts in tariff policy [that] have made their forecasts unusually uncertain.
The following charts unpack economists' forecasts in four key indicators—and report on how well the panel’s 2024 consensus fared against reality.
Congratulations to Sung Won Sohn of SS Economics, Joel Naroff of Naroff Economics, Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group, Lawrence Yun of the National Association of REALTORS® and Ellen Zentner of Morgan Stanley. Their combined forecasts in January 2024 for December of that year came closest to the actual numbers, based on all four of those indicators.