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Existing-home sales have lagged over the past two years, while new-home sales have surged—highlighting a key dynamic: Buyer demand remains strong when inventory is available.
The existing-home market continues to face a short supply of homes for sale, despite the latest progress of a 20% annual uptick in inventory. With just a 4 months’ supply of inventory, existing-home sales fell nearly 6% in March compared to February. Sales were down 2.4% from a year ago, the National Association of REALTORS® reported Thursday.
“That may begin to shift,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “As time passes, life events—such as job changes, family transitions or financial needs—could prompt more homeowners to sell, even if it means giving up their low locked-in mortgage rates.”
As it stands now, about 44 million homeowners have a mortgage rate below 6%, according to an NAR analysis. That’s lower than the current 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which has been averaging in the mid- to high 6% range. Buyers with financial wherewithal are bypassing mortgages altogether: All-cash buyers continue to make up a sizable share of the market, comprising 26% of existing-home sales transactions in March, according to NAR’s data.
Proof Buyers Are Still Out There
Even with last month’s slide in existing-home sales, buyers could still face some competition. Twenty-one percent of homes sold above list price in March, and 57% of real estate pros report that properties typically sold in just over a month, according to the March REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey, reflecting results from a survey of more than 1,500 real estate pros about their latest transactions. Homes listed received an average of 2.4 offers. What’s more, 22% of buyers waived the inspection contingency and 19% waived their appraisal contingency in competing in a home sale last month.
Home prices also are still climbing: The median existing-home sales price in March reached an all-time high of $403,700, NAR reports.
Contrasting housing prices with recent stock market declines, Yun says, “Household wealth in residential real estate continues to reach new heights. With mortgage delinquencies at near-historical lows, the housing market is on solid footing.”
Signaling further potential buyer interest, mortgage applications for home purchases are up 4.3% year-to-date. “Aside from inventory growth, lower mortgage rates will be needed to get homeowners to move,” Yun says. “A small deceleration in home price gains, which was slightly below wage-growth increases in March, would be a welcome improvement for affordability.”
Builders Capitalize on Demand but Face Headwinds
Meanwhile, homebuilders have plenty of inventory—and in some cases, lower mortgage rates—to meet some of that pent-up buyer demand. Sales of newly built homes climbed 7% in March compared to the previous month and are up 6% from a year ago, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau reported on Wednesday.
“A wide inventory availability—at eight months’ supply—is helping newly constructed home sales to move forward,” Yun says. “The homebuilders’ focus on smaller-sized homes is also attracting buyers.” New home sales are up 33% year-to-date for homes priced below $300,000 and up by 28% year-to-date for new homes priced between $300,000 and $400,000, NAHB reports.
In March, the median price of newly constructed homes was $403,600, well-below the $435,000 price from three years ago when builders were more focused on larger-sized homes, Yun adds.
Builder incentives also could be drawing buyers in. About 30% of builders say they cut their home prices in April, with the average price reduction at 5%, according to the NAHB and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. About 61% of builders say they also used sales incentives this month, like with mortgage rate buy downs or upgrades.
“The new home sales data shows that demand continues to be present in the market, provided affordability conditions permit a purchase,” says Buddy Hughes, NAHB’s chairman. “An increase in economic certainty would be a big boost to future sales conditions.”
Uncertainty looms, however, particularly around the potential impact new tariff policies could have on the new-home industry. Sixty percent of builders reported that suppliers have already increased or have announced tariff-related price increases for materials—an uptick of 6.3%, on average. Builders estimate that recent tariff actions could increase the cost of a newly built home by about $10,900 per home.
“Builders have expressed growing uncertainty over market conditions as tariffs have increased price volatility for building materials—at a time when the industry continues to grapple with labor shortages and a lack of buildable lots,” Hughes said.
