Trends in Median Single-Home Price by MSA (1990-2021)

Let's take a look at how single-family home prices have changed over time. To do so, we'll examine the nominal home prices to determine the movement of real values of home prices and home price appreciation, factoring in the Consumer Price Index to determine the real price appreciation. Additionally, we'll look at the average length of homeownership—ten years—and determine the gains or losses homeowners have experienced when buying and selling. This blog will investigate data from 1990-2021, with a detailed look into the 50 most populated metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and a specific look into the ten most populated MSAs as determined by the American Community Survey (2019 1-Year Estimates).

The National Association of REALTORS® provides median single-family home price data by MSA. Unavailable data has been approximated using the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index.

This post will illustrate what kind of expectations buyers and sellers should have regarding home prices in some of the most populated metro areas and how often they can expect a positive investment in a single-family home.

Median Single-Family Home Prices (1990-2021) Trends

This research involves only the 50 most populated MSAs as determined by population size from the America Community Survey's 2019 1-Year Estimates. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index was used to determine unavailable data from several metropolitan areas. A list of the 50 MSAs can be found at the end of this report.

This graph shows the median single-family home price change over time across 50 of the most populated metro areas. Home price is in thousands and displayed from 1990-2021.

• Across the 50 MSAs, the average median single-family home price increased by approximately $10,200 per year.
• Cleveland-Elyria, OH had the smallest nominal increase in median single-family home price, increasing a total of approximately $118,200 from 1990 to 2021 or an average of $3,812 per year.
• San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA had the most significant nominal increase in median single-family home price, increasing a total of approximately $1,172,300 from 1990 to 2021 or an average of $37,816 per year.

Median Single-Family Home Price Appreciation & Real Price Appreciation

The percent change in Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) data is subtracted from median single-family home price appreciation to calculate real price appreciation (in percent).

The blue line indicates the change in price from the previous year, and the orange line is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as consumer price inflation—a percentage change of the prior year.

Median Single-Family Home Prices and the Average Length of Homeownership

One thousand one hundred observations include 22 different 10-year periods across the 50 most populated MSAs. Nominal appreciation refers to the percent change in median-single family home price per year. In contrast, real appreciation refers to the nominal appreciation less consumer price inflation (using the Consumer Price Index).

Nominal Appreciation

• If you were to choose any given 10-year period and MSA combination, there is a 93% chance that this observation would indicate the median single-family home price appreciated at the end of the 10-year period.
• If you were to choose any given 10-year period and MSA combination, there is a 7% chance that this observation would indicate the median single-family home price depreciated at the end of the 10-year period.

Real Appreciation

• If you were to choose any given 10-year period and MSA combination, there is a 74% chance that this observation would indicate the median single-family home price appreciated at the end of the 10-year period.
• If you were to choose any given 10-year period and MSA combination, there is a 26% chance that this observation would indicate the median single-family home price depreciated at the end of the 10-year period.

Nominal Median Single-Family Home Prices

• Across the 50 largest metro areas, the average number of 10-year periods where the median single-family home price was less after ten years was 2.3 periods.
• Of these negative 10-year periods, the average decrease in median single-family home price was $27,400 after ten years.
• Of the 10-year periods where the median single-family home price increased, the average increase was $91,400 after ten years.

Appendix