The current economic situation is rapidly changing and impacting Americans’ jobs situation. During times of economic change, two key indicators to monitor are the employment situation, which shows whether the labor market is continuing to add jobs, and the unemployment insurance claims, which provide insight into the recent layoffs trend. Specifically, initial unemployment insurance claims refer to the new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation.

The first indicator shows that employment is growing. In March 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, total employment grew by 228,000, higher than the average monthly gain1, and the unemployment rate changed very little from 4.1% to 4.2%.

The second indicator shows that, in the week ending April 12, the number2 of initial unemployment insurance claims has increased by 3,176 (or 1.5%) from the previous week, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.

Unlike the jobs data, which is considered a lagging indicator as it reflects changes in employment after economic shifts occur, initial unemployment claims are considered a leading indicator as the number of claims can provide early signs of changes in the economic cycle. Initial claims data provide state-level estimates on a weekly basis, providing details on the changes that take place week by week.

Only twenty-four states and the District of Columbia reported a decrease3 in initial claims for the week that ended on April 12. Tennessee, Wisconsin, and Virginia had the highest declines in new unemployment claims, decreasing by 47.8%, 27.4%, and 24.1%, respectively.

In contrast, Kentucky, Missouri, and Oklahoma reported the largest increases in new unemployment claims for the same week, increasing by 187.3%, 68.0%, and 48.6%, respectively. Overall, more states reported an increase than a decline in the number of unemployment claims in the week of April 5-April 12, 2025.

Click on a state in the map to see how initial unemployment claims changed over the week ending April 12:

 
Notably, initial claims decreased in the states near the nation’s capital: between April 5 and April 12, claims in Virginia decreased by 24.1%, in Maryland by 8.7%, and in the District of Columbia by 6.9%, despite Federal government layoffs. In Virginia, the four-week moving average decreased by 80 compared to the previous week’s average; in Maryland, it decreased by 56; and in the District of Columbia, it decreased by 78.


Over the last two decades, unemployment insurance data followed economic turmoil closely. On March 28, 2009, during the Great Recession, initial insurance claims reached a peak of 659,2504 claims, and on April 18, 2020, during the COVID-19 lockdown, claims reached a peak of 5,288,250 nationwide. Between April 5 and April 12, claims decreased by 2,250, from 223,000 to 220,750, so we might not yet see the impact of mass layoffs in the Federal government.

The National Association of REALTORS® will closely monitor the claims data monthly for the state and national levels.

 

1 The average monthly jobs gain was 158,000 over the 12 months prior to March 2025.

2 Data reflects the unadjusted levels of initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending April 12, 2025.

3 Data reflects the weekly percentage change of unadjusted initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending April 12, 2025.

4 Data for the national level reflects a seasonally adjusted 4-week rolling average